Donald Trump: Press conference, Sep 29, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Press Conference with Benjamin Netanyahu?
Markets
35 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 63%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 51%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Qatar | Yes | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Europe / European | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 41%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Syria | Yes | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| October 7th | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hamas | Yes | 36%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Abraham | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist | Yes | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 57%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 56%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 50%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 48%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 45%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 44%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Comey | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Golden Dome | No | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 36%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 34%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Houthi | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Chicago | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Portland | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| West Bank | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iron Dome | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | No | 30%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Hezbollah | No | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine | No | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 23%n=16 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP29-2 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP