Donald Trump: Interview, Apr 15, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during FOX Noticias interview on April 15-16?
Markets
16 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | Yes | 43%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hispanic | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Big beautiful bill | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Medical | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 5+ times | No | 51%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times | No | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 10+ times | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NAFTA | No | 44%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Puerto Rico | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Insane asylum | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| US Steel / United States Steel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Colorado | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-fox-noticias-interview-on-april-15-16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP