Donald Trump: Speech, Jul 23, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during his AI speech on July 23?
Markets
14 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 67%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Big beautiful bill | Yes | 58%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | Yes | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China 7+ times | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful coal / Clean coal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Genius | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Drill baby drill | Yes | 49%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 14%n=102 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-his-ai-speech-on-july-23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP