Donald Trump: Remarks, Aug 15, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the President's Remarks ?
Markets
20 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 77%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 65%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | Yes | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 46%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 46%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| DC / District of Columbia | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Alaska | Yes | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | Yes | 24%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 45%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 41%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Gold | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Texas | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Congress | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Federalize | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Air Force One | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Powell | No | 25%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 25%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=109 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25AUG15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP