Donald Trump: Remarks, Jul 18, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say at the crypto bill signing ceremony on July 18?
Markets
10 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big beautiful bill | Yes | 51%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| SEC / Securities and Exchange Commission | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Chokepoint / Choke Point | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Coin 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto capital | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strategic Bitcoin Reserve | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fed / Powell | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Cynthia / Lummis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon | No | 35%n=28 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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