Donald Trump: Remarks, Jun 5, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Merz events on June 5?
Markets
19 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 64%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Make a deal | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Big beautiful bill | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 5+ times | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | Yes | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| European Union | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Angela / Merkel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Germany 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nord Stream | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanction | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff 7+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deficit | No | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ripped / Ripping | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nazi / Hitler | No | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 38%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 23%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=96 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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