Donald Trump: Remarks, May 30, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Remarks at US Steel Corporation?
Markets
28 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 70%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 69%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 60%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | Yes | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Radical | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | 44%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Pennsylvania | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nippon | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Swing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pharmaceutical | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 58%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon/Musk | No | 46%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Aluminum | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | No | 43%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fetterman | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reciprocal | No | 32%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Harvard | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP