Donald Trump: Episode, Nov 12, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Funding Bill Signing tonight?
Markets
18 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden / Obama | Yes | 68%n=111 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 52%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Air Traffic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 69%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 54%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 51%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | No | 48%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Egg / Gas | No | 45%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Job 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Longest Shutdown | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palestinian Senator | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Poll | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stupid / Idiot | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Autopen | No | 39%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | No | 36%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein / Hoax | No | 27%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 23%n=175 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-funding-bill-signing-tonight · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP