Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 2, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Announcement today?
Markets
33 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 80%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 51%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 47%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| FIFA / World Cup | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro / Venezuela | Yes | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Chicago | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Housing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mail-In Voting | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Washington DC / Nation's Capital | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Window | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Newsom | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drug | Yes | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 56%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | No | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 52%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 51%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | No | 40%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Israel | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cancer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Department of Defense | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Department of War | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Executive Order | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hand/Hands | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Health / Healthy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Resign | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rudy / Giuliani | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stroke | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Emergency | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 33%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein / Maxwell | No | 31%n=18 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP