Donald Trump: Remarks, Jul 22, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Next Bilateral Meeting with a Foreign Leader?
Markets
25 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 71%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 69%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 68%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Trade | Yes | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 46%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | Yes | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | Yes | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Military | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investment | Yes | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 54%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | No | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Chip | No | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 49%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Boat / Ship | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Defense | No | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Electric | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hoax | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 35%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Powell | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taiwan | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Reciprocal | No | 30%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 27%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | No | 27%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Security | No | 26%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 25%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBILATERALMENTION-25JUL22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP