Donald Trump: Press conference, May 30, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say in his Press Conference with Elon?
Polymarket What will Trump and Elon say during Friday's Press Conference?
Markets
28 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 53%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Genius | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rocket | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Judge | Yes | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| DOGE 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Harvard | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mars | Yes | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Starlink | Yes | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Wife | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrats | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| White Genocide | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IQ | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| SEC | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Altman | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Air Force One | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tesla | No | 35%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Crime | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cybertruck | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Liar | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Spacex | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Artificial Intelligence / AI | No | 28%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | No | 22%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 13%n=93 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-2-25MAY30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP