Donald Trump: Keynote, Jul 15, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit?
Polymarket What will Trump say at the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?
Markets
38 words · 20 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 63%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 61%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 56%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 51%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Drill baby drill | Yes | 48%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | 48%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Green new scam | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful coal / Clean coal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 43%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Chip | Yes | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | Yes | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Gas | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Golden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Infrastructure | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Artificial Intelligence / AI | Yes | 29%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 44%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Frack / Fracking | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Amazon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stargate | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pipeline | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | No | 38%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 37%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Starlink | No | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| OpenAI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Meta | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Microsoft | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| NVIDIA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Spacex | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tesla | No | 30%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 23%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 16%n=101 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25JUL15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP