Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his remarks at the Republican Committee Dinner?
Polymarket What will Trump say during NRCC Dinner on March 25?
Markets
58 words · 37 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 72%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 64%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 61%n=213 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 60%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / SAVE America Act | Yes | 59%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | Yes | 58%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | 58%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 57%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 57%n=149 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 55%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 53%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 52%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 52%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tip / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | Yes | 50%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 49%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 48%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 48%n=181 from settlement history | – |
| Air Force / Space Force | Yes | 47%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 46%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 7+ times | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 45%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Make a Deal | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 8+ times | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheated / Cheating 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Swing State | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TSA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tom / Homan | Yes | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Common Sense | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Favored Nation | Yes | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| RINO | Yes | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 37%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Steve / Witkoff | Yes | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 67%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | No | 62%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Midnight Hammer | No | 59%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | 59%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 58%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 55%n=132 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 55%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| No No No | No | 54%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Job 15+ times | No | 49%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| November 5 | No | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 44%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| Massie | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 38%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful Woman | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Too Big to Rig | No | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | No | 37%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 32%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | No | 19%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 16%n=318 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-nrcc-dinner-on-march-25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP