Will Donald Trump say “Too Big to Rig”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Too Big to Rig” at 4 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 9, 2024 (40%), most recently on Jul 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Too Big to Rig
- Probability
- 42% · n=10
- Settled
- 4/10 (40%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…proud of it all three times and especially the last time. Too big to rig. 13 days from now, the people of South Carolina You…
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Too Big to Rig |  Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Too Big To Rig | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (9 of 13 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Too Big to Rig | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Too Big to Rig | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Too Big to Rig | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Too Big To Rig | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Too big to rig | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Too Big to Rig |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Too Big To Rig | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Too big to rig | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Too Big to Rig”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Too Big to Rig” at 4 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 9, 2024 (40%), most recently on Jul 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Too Big to Rig” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Too Big to Rig’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/too-big-to-rig (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=too%20big%20to%20rig · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP