Will Donald Trump say “Swing State”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Swing State” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 25, 2026 (33%), most recently on Mar 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Swing State
- Probability
- 37% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
all seven swing states. We won the popular vote. We won everything. 87% of the counties. Did you know that, Jeff? Did you know we…
…just won the presidency in a landslide, by the way. all seven swing states popular vote 87% of the counties the massive electoral college win…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Swing State |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Swing State | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Swing State | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Swing State”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Swing State” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 25, 2026 (33%), most recently on Mar 25, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Swing State” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Swing State’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/swing-state (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=swing%20state · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP