Will Donald Trump say “Massie”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Massie” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 1, 2025 (20%), most recently on Oct 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Massie
- Probability
- 53% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Massie |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Massie |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Massie | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Massie | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Massie | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Massie”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Massie” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 1, 2025 (20%), most recently on Oct 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Massie” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Massie’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/massie (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=massie · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP