Will Donald Trump say “Tom / Homan”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tom / Homan” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 14, 2025 (40%), most recently on Mar 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Tom / Homan
- Probability
- 42% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…have good I get these guys. They're like central casting. They're like Tom Cruz but taller. They look like Tom Cruz. And these handsome guys,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | Tom / Homan |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Tom / Homan | Polymarket | No |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Tom / Homan |  Kalshi | Yes |
| May 6, 2025 | Tom / Homan | Polymarket | No |
| Apr 14, 2025 | Tom / Homan | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Tom / Homan”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tom / Homan” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 14, 2025 (40%), most recently on Mar 25, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Tom / Homan” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Tom / Homan’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/homan-or-tom (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=homan%20%2F%20tom · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP