Will Donald Trump say “Make a Deal”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Make a Deal” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 10, 2025 (100%), most recently on Apr 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Make a Deal
- Probability
- 50% · n=5
- Settled
- 5/5 (100%)
- Last 2 press conferences
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the American taxpayers are tired of it. We want Zelenskyy to make a deal. He can make a deal. He could have made a deal…
And again, I urged Iran to make a deal. And again they refused. The regime continued building a vast missile and drone stockpile that threatened…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Make a Deal |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Make a Deal | Polymarket | Yes |
| Jun 5, 2025 | Make a deal | Polymarket | Yes |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Make a Deal | Polymarket | Yes |
| Apr 10, 2025 | Make a Deal | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Make a Deal”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Make a Deal” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 10, 2025 (100%), most recently on Apr 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Make a Deal” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Make a Deal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/make-a-deal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=make%20a%20deal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP