Will Donald Trump say “Thug”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Thug” at 27 of 39 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 8, 2025 (69%), most recently on Jun 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=39, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.
67%from settlement history only · n=39counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Thug
- Probability
- 67% · n=39
- Settled
- 27/39 (69%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 rallies, 3 remarks); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…would say the nice people are raiding a certain group of illegal thugs that poured into our country. But these are really nice people and…
…it's schools. It's schools. I'm looking at some of these guys, these thugs. They're not students. It's illegal immigration is what it is. It's people…
Every settled listing
newest first · 39 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Thug |  Kalshi | Yes | 14 |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 24, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 17, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 10, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 3, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Thug | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Thug | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Thug | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Thug | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Thug | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Thug |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Thug”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Thug” at 27 of 39 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 8, 2025 (69%), most recently on Jun 12, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Thug” next time?
- 67%, from settlement history (n=39). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Thug’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/thug (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=thug · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP