Will Donald Trump say “Chicago”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Chicago” at 6 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 2, 2025 (40%), most recently on Mar 31, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.

41%from settlement history only · n=15counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no no no yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=chicago

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Chicago

Probability
41% · n=15
Settled
6/15 (40%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 16 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Mar 31, 2026ChicagoPolymarketYes
Mar 31, 2026ChicagoPolymarketNo
Mar 23, 2026ChicagoPolymarketYes
Mar 23, 2026ChicagoKalshiYes
Feb 24, 2026ChicagoPolymarketNo
Feb 24, 2026ChicagoKalshiNo
Nov 27, 2025ChicagoPolymarketNo
Oct 17, 2025ChicagoKalshiNo
Oct 11, 2025ChicagoKalshiYes
Oct 7, 2025ChicagoKalshiYes
Sep 30, 2025ChicagoKalshiYes
Sep 29, 2025ChicagoKalshiNo
Sep 29, 2025ChicagoKalshiNo
Sep 18, 2025ChicagoKalshiNo
Sep 5, 2025ChicagoKalshiNo
Sep 2, 2025ChicagoKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Chicago”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Chicago” at 6 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 2, 2025 (40%), most recently on Mar 31, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Chicago” next time?
41%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Chicago’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/chicago (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=chicago · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP