Will Donald Trump say “Stupid / Idiot”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Stupid / Idiot” at any of the 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 26, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Stupid / Idiot
- Probability
- 36% · n=4
- Settled
- 0/4 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…America. Take the take them off and watch everybody say bye-bye you stupid people. But uh but the fake news was just killing me because…
…idea." And then you know what they told me? It's not constitutional. In other words, a person who's stupid is allowed to run for office.
…do something horrendous. So, let's say we did what a lot of stupid people wanted me to do, a lot of really stupid people. I…
…night in North Carolina. We talked about France and that's what these idiots that stand up and do one. Do you notice it's always the…
…of all kinds, and it's time. I gave them Javelins. When the stupid general for Russia, very stupid gentleman, they had 1,000 tanks riding up…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Stupid / Idiot |  Polymarket | No |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Stupid / Idiot | Polymarket | No |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Stupid / Idiot | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Stupid / Idiot | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Stupid / Idiot”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Stupid / Idiot” at any of the 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 26, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Stupid / Idiot” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Stupid / Idiot’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/idiot-or-stupid (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=idiot%20%2F%20stupid · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP