Will Donald Trump say “National Guard”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “National Guard” at 12 of 33 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 15, 2025 (36%), most recently on Aug 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=33, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no no no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
National Guard
- Probability
- 47% · n=33
- Settled
- 12/33 (36%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 33 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | National Guard |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 24, 2026 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 23, 2026 | National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 19, 2026 | National Guard |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 13, 2026 | National Guard | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 23, 2025 | National Guard | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | National Guard | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 3, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 3, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 22, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 12, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 11, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 3, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 21, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 21, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 18, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 17, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 11, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 10, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 18, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 5, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 2, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 11, 2025 | National Guard | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 20, 2025 | National Guard | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jun 15, 2025 | National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “National Guard”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “National Guard” at 12 of 33 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 15, 2025 (36%), most recently on Aug 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “National Guard” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=33). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP