Will Donald Trump say “FBI”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “FBI” at 7 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 18, 2024 (78%), most recently on May 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 7/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
FBI
- Probability
- 37% · n=9
- Settled
- 7/9 (78%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin, Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, FBI Director Kash Patel, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton, National Cyber Director…
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2026 | FBI |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 10, 2026 | FBI |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 19, 2026 | FBI | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | FBI | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 23, 2026 | FBI | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 8, 2025 | FBI | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 21, 2025 | FBI | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 21, 2025 | FBI | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 25, 2024 | FBI | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 18, 2024 | FBI | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “FBI”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “FBI” at 7 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 18, 2024 (78%), most recently on May 9, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “FBI” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘FBI’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fbi (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fbi · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP