Will Donald Trump say “Cancer”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cancer” at 2 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 2, 2025 (22%), most recently on Aug 31, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Cancer
- Probability
- 41% · n=9
- Settled
- 2/9 (22%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Cancer |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Cancer |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Cancer | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Cancer | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Cancer | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| May 18, 2026 | Cancer | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Cancer | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Cancer | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Cancer | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Cancer | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Cancer”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cancer” at 2 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 2, 2025 (22%), most recently on Aug 31, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Cancer” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Cancer’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cancer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cancer · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP