Will Donald Trump say “Trans”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trans” at 29 of 43 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 12, 2024 (67%), most recently on Mar 26, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=43, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

39%from settlement history only · n=43counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tran

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Trans

Probability
39% · n=43
Settled
29/43 (67%)
Last 8 remarks
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

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Every settled listing

newest first · 43 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Feb 12, 2026TransPolymarketNo–
Mar 28, 2025transPolymarketYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Mar 20, 2025TransPolymarketNo–
Mar 17, 2025TransPolymarketNo–
Mar 12, 2025TransPolymarketNo–
Mar 4, 2025TransKalshiNo–
Feb 9, 2025TransPolymarketNo–
Jan 20, 2025TransPolymarketNo–
Dec 5, 2024TransPolymarketNo–
Nov 4, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Nov 4, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Nov 2, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Nov 1, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 29, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 27, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 26, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 25, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 25, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 24, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 23, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 22, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 20, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 19, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 18, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 16, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 15, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 12, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 11, 2024TransPolymarketNo–
Oct 9, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 6, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 5, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 4, 2024TransPolymarketNo–
Oct 3, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Oct 1, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Sep 28, 2024TransPolymarketNo–
Sep 27, 2024TransPolymarketNo–
Sep 25, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Sep 24, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Sep 23, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Sep 21, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Sep 17, 2024TransPolymarketNo–
Sep 13, 2024TransPolymarketYes–
Aug 12, 2024TransPolymarketNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Trans”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trans” at 29 of 43 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 12, 2024 (67%), most recently on Mar 26, 2025.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Trans” next time?
39%, from settlement history (n=43). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Trans’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tran (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP