Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 16, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Univision town hall?
Markets
20 words · 5 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border 15+ times | Yes | 56%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | Yes | 43%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Hispanic 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reagan | Yes | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Million 10+ times | No | 56%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | No | 54%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 3+ times | No | 53%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala 20+ times | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| JD Vance | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Aurora | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NAFTA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 25+ times | No | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hispanics Love Me | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Latino/Latina | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taco | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tren de Aragua | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 36%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 10%n=25 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-univision-town-hall · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP