Donald Trump: Rally, Nov 1, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Warren, MI rally?
Markets
19 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 84%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Pocahontas | Yes | 72%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Garbage | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Wall Street | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Lisa McClain | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mike Rogers | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shanghai | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump Reciprocal Trade Act | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gun 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hitler | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela/Venezuelan 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gamble | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Michigan 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Petrified | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Melania | No | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| God 5+ times | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 24%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 4%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | open | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-warren-mi-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP