Donald Trump: Rally, Nov 2, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Greensboro, NC rally?
Markets
18 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 85%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Pocahontas | Yes | 75%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Front Row Joe | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gun 5+ times | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Graffiti | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| North Carolina 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vote 25+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God 4+ times | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | No | 75%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Dark MAGA | No | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Camera | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 6+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Garbage Truck | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peanut/Squirrel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela/Venezuelan 5+ times | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 25%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 23%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 3%n=42 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-greensboro-nc-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP