Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 27, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during New York rally?
Markets
20 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 83%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Women's Sports | Yes | 72%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 63%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Pocahontas | Yes | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| COVID 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Green New Scam 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 10+ times | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Missile Defense Shield | No | 72%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | No | 72%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| New York 30+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NYPD | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Police 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Too Big To Rig 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Trade Center | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia 5+ times | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tax 30+ times | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 36%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| God 5+ times | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 29%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 5%n=35 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-new-york-rally-oct-27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP