Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 5, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump Say during Pennsylvania rally?
Markets
23 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Million 10+ times | Yes | 73%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | Yes | 67%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Secret Service | Yes | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | Yes | 59%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Bullet 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Liquid Gold 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Starlink | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tesla | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| McDonald's | No | 63%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala 30+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Miracle | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Phone App | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stone-cold 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Disgrace 2+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Golf | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 45%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 11%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-rally-oct-5 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP