Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 25, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Michigan rally?
Markets
22 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 81%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | 68%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Pocahontas | Yes | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Women's Sports | Yes | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala 20+ times | Yes | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Detroit | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Frack/Fracking 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mexico 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wall Street | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| American Dream 3+ times | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | Yes | 42%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| NAFTA | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Beach | No | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Death Penalty | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GM/General Motors | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| North Carolina 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hitler | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 25+ times | No | 46%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ford | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 39%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 6%n=32 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-michigan-rally-oct-25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP