Donald Trump: Episode, Oct 25, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Rogan podcast?
Markets
25 words · 14 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 66%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | Yes | 63%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | 61%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | 60%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Women's Sports | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax 10+ times | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dana | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kennedy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vaccine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Melania | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Weave | Yes | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | No | 54%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Pocahontas | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Dark MAGA | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cold Plunge | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weed | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hitler | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| FEMA | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 33%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 12%n=32 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-rogan-podcast · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP