Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 19, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
Markets
18 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | Yes | 76%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | Yes | 74%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Elon 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Starlink | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | 54%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Tren de Aragua | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Gun 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Frack/Fracking 3+ times | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | Yes | 35%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 3+ times | No | 65%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Dark MAGA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 60 minutes | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Melania | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 40%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Weave | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-rally-oct-19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP