Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 12, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during California rally?
Markets
20 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 69%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 69%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Missile Defense Shield | Yes | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Too Big To Rig 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Reagan | Yes | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Alaska | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Unrealized | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| God 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Green New Scam 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sleepy/Crooked Joe 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 46%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 44%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 42%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala 35+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hurricane 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax 30+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 8%n=23 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-california-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP