Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 17, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?
Markets
20 words · 5 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake News 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border 15+ times | Yes | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Secret Service | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 64%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Springfield | No | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rig/Rigged | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Comrade Kamala 3+ times | No | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Moderator | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Insane Asylum | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pager | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taylor Swift | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cat | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Haitian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Routh | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Loomer | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 4+ times | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 27%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-michigan-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP