Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 26, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
Markets
22 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 82%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | 72%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Tren de Aragua | Yes | 72%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Missile Defense Shield | Yes | 69%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Women's Sports | Yes | 67%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Beach | Yes | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Frack/Fracking 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanctuary City | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 25+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Teleprompter 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| French Fries | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economic Wasteland | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NAFTA | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 46%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Border 25+ times | No | 43%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| God 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mars | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Unrealized | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Phone App | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 35+ times | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 30%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 5%n=34 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-rally-oct-26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP