Donald Trump: Rally, Sep 23, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Pennsylvania rally?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border 15+ times | Yes | 73%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 70%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Million 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trans | Yes | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Border 25+ times | Yes | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Credit Card | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sex Change | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 58%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Comrade Kamala 3+ times | No | 53%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Hezbollah | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| RFK | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mark Robinson | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAGA 4+ times | No | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Haitian | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 16%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-rally-sept-23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP