Donald Trump: Speech, Jan 20, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during inauguration speech?
Markets
24 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| God 4+ times | Yes | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 52%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| America 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America First | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Los Angeles | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mandate 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trans | No | 71%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | No | 65%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Border 5+ times | No | 61%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Elon Musk | No | 52%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Rig/Rigged | No | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Immigrant/Immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Carnage | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Middle Class | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TikTok | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| January 6 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Doge/Dogecoin | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 4+ times | No | 40%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 11%n=51 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP