Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 24, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Las Vegas rally?
Markets
20 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 80%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Frack/Fracking 3+ times | Yes | 63%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 3+ times | Yes | 60%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Pocahontas | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| COVID | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax 30+ times | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| God 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Korea | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reno | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 25+ times | No | 51%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Hispanic 3+ times | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NAFTA | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mars | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 35+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Weave | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 32%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 6%n=31 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-las-vegas-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP