Donald Trump: Interview, Aug 12, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Elon interview?
Markets
12 words · 3 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAGA | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal immigrant | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tampon | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Censor/Censorship | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Civil war | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mars | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tesla | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trans | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weird | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kambala | open | – | 39¢ Polymarket |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-elon-interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP