Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 18, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Detroit rally?
Markets
21 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 73%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | Yes | 65%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| North Carolina 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insane Asylum | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tren de Aragua | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million 10+ times | No | 76%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla | No | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 25+ times | No | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| JD Vance | No | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border 35+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ford | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hurricane 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weave | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reagan | No | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala 30+ times | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 39%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 38%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 4+ times | No | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 8%n=26 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-detroit-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP