Donald Trump: Interview, Feb 9, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Super Bowl pregame interview?
Markets
25 words · 1 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon/Musk | Yes | 60%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 66%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | No | 64%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Border 5+ times | No | 61%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 60%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 59%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | No | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trudeau | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Beautiful 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bills | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chiefs | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DEI/Diversity Equity and Inclusion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eagles | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Panama | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Patrick/Mahomes | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taylor/Swift | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Greenland | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| DOGE/Department of Governmental Efficiency | No | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin/Crypto/Cryptocurrency | No | 15%n=64 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-super-bowl-pregame-interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP