Donald Trump: Speech, Dec 5, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say in next live speech?
Markets
15 words · 3 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAGA | Yes | 65%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trans | No | 72%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | No | 69%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Deport | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gaetz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Monkey Pox | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recess Appointment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 10%n=51 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-in-next-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP