Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 23, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Georgia rally?
Markets
23 words · 15 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 78%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Tren de Aragua | Yes | 68%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala 25+ times | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 61%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Alien Enemies Act | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Get Out and Vote | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Capone | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defund the Police 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Turning Point | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela/Venezuelan 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vote 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Frack/Fracking | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pocahontas | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cheat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gun 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rogan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 45%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 42%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 34%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 6%n=30 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-georgia-rally-oct-23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP