Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 22, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during North Carolina rally on Oct 22?
Markets
19 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 77%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 72%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | 65%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Tren de Aragua | Yes | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 57%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Beach | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Helene | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alien Enemies Act | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| French fries | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China 10+ times | Yes | 40%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | Yes | 36%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Voter ID | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unrealized | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| FEMA | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Phone App | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAGA 5+ times | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 36%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 7%n=29 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-north-carolina-rally-oct-22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP