Donald Trump: Speech, Oct 1, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
Markets
19 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | Yes | 71%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Million 10+ times | Yes | 70%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | Yes | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Tips | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Helene | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World War 3 | Yes | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Queen | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zelensky | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Debate | No | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Disabled | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mentally Impaired | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Walz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tampon | No | 44%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| AI | No | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 14%n=16 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech-oct-1 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP