Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 9, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Reading, Pennsylvania rally? (7 PM ET)
Markets
19 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 74%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Missile defense shield | Yes | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drill baby drill | Yes | 60%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| God | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fracking 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hurricane | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala 25+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Too big to rig | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tampon | Yes | 39%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 56%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Green new scam | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| FEMA | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala 35+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Milton | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 20+ times | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 10%n=21 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-rally-Oct-9 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP