Donald Trump: Speech, Oct 15, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Georgia speech?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Million 10+ times | Yes | 74%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | 64%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | Yes | 62%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 3+ times | Yes | 58%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kamala 20+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dark MAGA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defund the police | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bidenomics | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Black men | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamalanomics | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 43%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 11%n=24 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-georgia-speech-oct-15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP