Donald Trump: Speech, Mar 4, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say in his speech about the State of the Union today?
Polymarket What will Trump say during address to Congress?
Markets
62 words · 37 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin | Yes | 62%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Million 10+ times | Yes | 59%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 58%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | 58%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | 54%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 53%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Elon/Musk | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| God 4+ times | Yes | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trans/Transgender | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mexico 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | 48%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Pam / Bondi | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zelenskyy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Los Angeles | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mandate 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Beautiful 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gulf of America | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Canada | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Vladimir / Putin | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Volodymyr / Zelenskyy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mexico | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| DEI/Diversity Equity and Inclusion | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon Musk | Yes | 43%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Mineral | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Make America Healthy Again | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Immigrant/Immigration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Panama | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DOGE / "Department of Government Efficiency" | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gaza | Yes | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | Yes | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | No | 60%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | No | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation 10+ times | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mandate 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Retard / Retarded | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Term Limit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrible 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unemployment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rig/Rigged | No | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald | No | 43%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Ivanka | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Make America Great Again 4+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sam Altman | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TikTok | No | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Carnage | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Middle Class | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| January 6 | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Doge/Dogecoin | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | No | 31%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 15%n=63 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTJOINTSESSION-25MAR04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP