Donald Trump: Speech, Sep 25, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during North Carolina speech?
Markets
18 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Million 10+ times | Yes | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | Yes | 62%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Liquid Gold | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NAFTA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Putin 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 25+ times | No | 63%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Energy 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reagan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump Reciprocal Trade Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tampon | No | 50%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Comrade Kamala 3+ times | No | 44%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 4+ times | No | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 20%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-north-carolina-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP